2025 Progress Report on the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan: Canada off Course for Climate Targets, with More Riding on Fewer Policies
March 10, 2026
Canadian Climate Institute’s independent assessment of the federal climate plan progress report shows stronger industrial policies can speed climate progress, but they won’t be enough on their own.
An independent review of the federal government’s progress report on its climate plan confirms that the country requires policy reform and provincial co-operation to get closer to its climate goals while spurring innovation and building a more affordable, competitive economy.
The Canadian Climate Institute released its independent assessment of the 2025 Progress Report on the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan, which the federal government was legally required to publish, outlining progress made on the country’s emissions goals. The Institute finds that the federal report offers a credible picture of Canada’s progress, but does not offer an adequate policy response to the growing gap between the country’s emissions and its climate targets.
While Canada has policies to reduce emissions, the country is not on track to meet any of its climate goals, including its 2035 target and net zero emissions by 2050, according to modelling the Institute conducted with Navius Research. Instead, national emissions are on course to be roughly half way to the 2030 emissions goal.
The report also recommends ways to accelerate Canada’s progress. Much depends on how the federal government follows through on commitments from its budget and the Canada-Alberta Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), particularly those concerning co-operative action with the provinces including industrial carbon pricing and oil and gas methane regulations.
Crucially, the Institute’s analysis shows that if the federal government gets the details right on industrial carbon pricing, and the provinces implement strengthened systems, it can roughly double the additional emissions reductions from this policy, compared to a scenario where systems largely continue as they stand today.
While better industrial climate policies will speed up Canada’s progress, they are not enough to reach the country’s goals: more policy effort will be needed. The Institute’s report includes recommendations to inform the development of additional policy options to get closer to Canada’s climate and clean economy goals. In the months ahead, the Canadian Climate Institute will be developing a more detailed assessment of potential policy options governments can implement to make deeper emissions reductions and bolster low-carbon growth.
2025 Progress Report on the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan: Canada off Course for Climate Targets, with More Riding on Fewer Policies
QUICK FACTS
- Canada’s emissions reduction targets are: 40 to 45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, 45 to 50 per cent by 2035, and net zero emissions by 2050.
- Canada’s 2030 target requires reducing emissions to approximately 440 megatonnes by the end of the decade. National emissions were estimated at 694 megatonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent (Mt) in 2024, or 8.5 per cent below 2005 levels.
- The Institute’s analysis shows Canada’s emissions are projected to be between 18 and 22 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, depending on the final design of key policies—roughly half way to the 2030 target.
- Estimates for 2024 show emissions from oil and gas up 9 per cent since 2005, while emissions from transport (+0.2 per cent) and buildings (-3.5 per cent) have been largely flat. Emissions from electricity (-59 per cent) and heavy industry (-11 per cent) have fallen significantly.
