IESO’s 2026 Annual Planning Outlook Shows Long-Term Energy Demand Continues to Rise

April 7, 2026

The IESO’s yearly forecast of electricity demand, reliability assessments, and identified capacity and energy needs is now available.

The Annual Planning Outlook helps guide future actions and build a foundation for decision-making by identifying system needs and planned actions that are needed to ensure the reliability, affordability, and sustainability of Ontario’s electricity system — and to support economic growth.

Ontario electricity demand is forecast to grow 65 per cent, in line with recent forecasts, driven by economic development, population growth and electrification. Strong growth potential persists despite geopolitical disruption. High- and low-growth scenarios have been modelled to provide greater insight into how key variables, like electric vehicle adoption, could alter the trajectory. 2026 Annual Planning Outlook in 5 Graphs and a Map

What’s new for 2026 is the development of high- and low-demand scenarios, in addition to the reference demand forecast scenario, to better illustrate and prepare for potential future system conditions. The IESO has also introduced a growth margin that groups together the areas of increasing demand that are particularly variable to allow for improved tracking and monitoring of the key drivers that could impact year-over-year planning.

While the 2026 forecast shows some short-term demand impacts — the long-term trend of significant growth is consistent with past outlooks and shows Ontario is poised to continue growing through the 2030s and beyond. This factors in a bigger impact from energy efficiency, compared to previous outlooks, due to new and expanded programming.

In addition to adding high- and low-demand scenarios, the IESO is introducing a new growth margin that groups together areas of demand growth that are particularly variable, like electric vehicles and data centres. Separating these variables from more stable factors influencing demand growth, like population growth, allows for improved tracking and monitoring of key drivers that impact year-over-year planning. *Source:* 2026 Annual Planning Outlook in 5 Graphs and a Map

The short-term uncertainty in the 2026 demand forecast reinforces the value of the IESO’s iterative approach to planning and procurements, ensuring the IESO, electricity sector, and the province can be agile and adaptable as bold investments in infrastructure and energy efficiency are made to secure Ontario’s energy future.